While most prefer the illusions of reality, Spain is sliding into an economic and social disaster without precedent, which will highlight the failure of public accounts, from which awaits us, in the words of Bloomberg's chief economist for Europe, "a long valley of shadows" where water will do all the great social achievements of the past 50 years, from the middle class, the pension system, through national health system and the benefits to the unemployed. It is clear that ocean of incompetence, the radical sectarianism, and the absolute lack of sense of the State of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has accelerated the process, but not the only culprit. Our downfall started long before.
And then, when was fucked Spain? The origin is clear and unequivocal: the pact, frivolity and mediocrity of the fathers of the Transition, embodied in the collective madness of 'one size fits all', which led to a model of economically and politically viable state, which invented 17 autonomous, contrary to most historical and objective reality of Spain, to a totalitarian party politics that prevents the separation of powers and submit to the Executive the other branches of government, and non-representative electoral system of closed lists, that premium to national minorities, and allows the party oligarchies, seize and plunder of national sovereignty to the people without them having to defend itself.
What Transition inherited and destroyed.
The period 1959-1975 was the highest economic growth in our history, and the better distribution of wealth created ever created. In just a few years, a small group of economists, without more help than their intelligence, become a backward country into an industrial country. The key figure to demonstrate this assertion is the degree of convergence with the group of nine countries that then formed the EEC. Were 58.3% of English GDP per capita as a percentage of average GDP of these nine countries in 1959, would go to 81.4% in 1975, the highest level ever reached convergence. And as for the distribution of wealth created, the work reached 56% of GDP, compared to 45% today, and unprecedented social change, the middle class would increase from 19.8% in 1935 to 45.3% in 1975.
Well, the disaster of the transition, the convergence would sink to 70.8% in 1985, and 32 years later, in 2007, the peak year later convergence, could not exceed the figure de 1975, es decir, sería el 78,6% de los nueve países centrales, y probablemente no lo superará tampoco en los próximos 32 años. Por supuesto hemos crecido en riqueza absoluta, todo el mundo lo ha hecho, pero solo la convergencia, el crecer más que los demás, permite valorar la realidad.
En cifras absolutas, el colapso fue tal que de un crecimiento del 7,5% en el periodo 60-75, pasaríamos al 0,8% en 1975-85; el paro del 6% en 1974 al 36% en 1977; la inflación del 7% al 44% a mediados del 77, y la deuda externa superaría en tres veces las reservas del BdE. En solo dos años colocarían España al borde del colapso, evitado “in extremis” por Fuentes Quintana the Moncloa Pacts, would resign soon after because of the irresponsibility of Oliart, always at the service of power, as opposed to rationalize the electrical system. Another representative figure: in 1975, Spain and Ireland had the same per capita income, $ 10,000. Today even with the crisis, Ireland's is 40% higher than the English and the second of the EU.
The time
Aznar is not possible in such a short space even to mention many key facts, and to focus the issues of today, I have to dispense with Felipe Gonzalez, a person full of light and shadow, with a great sense of State unlike Zapatero, but made economically fundamental errors, negotiating EU entry by a rush that, while understandable, was a disaster for Spain. As we entered without giving anything was a disaster as well as industrial restructuring, and the use of Social Security surpluses to finance the State, 220,000 million between 1982-96. In 1996, Solbes, a staff member with no ideas and no work, leave Spain in serious crisis and the state virtually bankrupt.
was when Aznar, who was in the right place at the right time, spending a few snips, but especially the sale of crown jewels, the privatization of large public companies, will allow ordering accounts and enter the euro, and since then the upward cycle of the global economy would lead us in a twinkling, unlimited credit, low interest rates and the start of the housing boom would ensure very rapid growth. So when you hear the PP today say that they brought to Spain in a crisis and do it again, you do not know whether to laugh or mourn, to Bibiana Aido had gone through a financial wizard. So much so that the two major waste of our economic history, and Zapatero Solbes, without moving a hair growth got stronger in the final part of the upward cycle.
"Aznar and his team knew how to manage wealth and an absolute majority, and take critical decisions to ensure sustainable growth and regeneration of Spain? The answer is a resounding no. Structural defects were covered by the housing bubble, and not only addressed, but were amplified and consolidated. The regional turmoil, rather than ordered and limited, grew unchecked, until the quota Basque in negotiations minister erroneous and absurd Rato, was reduced to less than half that share. Public monopolies with regulated prices would become private monopolies, with free prices. Or containment of public employment, and labor market reform, and structural reforms or anything else. And as to regenerate Spain, did not even try, and today the PP with a leader without convictions, weak and unable to be in the process of rapid degeneration.
Zapatero The time
The program that Zapatero won the election was correct. Identified the problems and called for the change of economic model unsustainable. But once in power, a Solbes apathetic and unwilling to get into trouble, which, moreover, know, see how the economy was growing without knowing why, while napping and to Sudoku, but he did not like that inequality grow exponentially and the richest 10% appropriates 70% of wealth not to mention Zapatero, dedicated full time to the regression of Spain, to face the English, to promote homosexuality and abortion, the relentless attack of Christianity using the Islamism seeks to reconquer Al-Andalus, to destroy the public education system has ceased to be the social ladder that was in the past, and winding, in short, of the English nation, "something debated and debatable."
But as was obvious, everything came to an end, hastened by the global crisis and the delirious reaction of Zapatero before it. First denied the crisis, then we are about to leave her and its current strategy enters the realm of insanity: to resume growth, and Zurbano botched electric buggy, to fix the deficit, austerity agreement with the Autonomous Communities in 1,975 million euros, what they spend on coffee; to hide the bankruptcy of banks and savings, changes in land law; to hide the bankruptcy of major construction and collapse of public investment, infrastructure plan absurd, 70% will be invested in AVE lines, financial ruin and only a few thousand jobs in construction, and mortgaging the state for 30 years under draconian. Now that's real money, not the half of the sausages Gürtel hair!
And things, indicators of supply, household consumption and labor market in the first quarter, rather than stabilizing, show further declines, and in July will complete the largest tax increase in our history, whose negative effect on GDP, as shown by the empirical evidence and theoretical models, will be three times as a result of the multiplier - Ms. Salgado know what that is? - which we sink back into a deep recession, which we can not fix emitting more debt or lower interest rates. In a few months we will be like Greece, but with twice the unemployment rate more than twice the staff per thousand inhabitants, broken financial system and runaway government accounts, 70% outside of government control. No matter what they say the government and its followers, or that many close their eyes waiting for a miracle. There will be no miracle. The future can not be avoided, while the silent majority is more silent than ever, watching destroy their future, their children and the generations to come.
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